Has the PDP fallen?
After Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) became the first political party to produce the country’s president, President Olusegun Obasanjo. He governed for eight years, and the PDP continued to maintain its dominance both nationally and statewide, controlling 31 states at some point and holding the majority in most state houses of assembly. However, the PDP’s sixteen-year reign in power ended when Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress defeated incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan in a historic moment. The president congratulated his opponent, but since then, the PDP has never been the same.
PRE-2015
Apart from the ousting of former President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) during the election by Buhari, the PDP also suffered defeats in both the Senate and House of Representatives elections which it previously controlled. Before its defeat in the March 28 election, the PDP held a majority in the National Assembly. It had a comfortable lead in the House of Representatives with 214 seats in 1999 and 263 in 2007. However, these numbers dropped to 208 and 137 in 2011 and 2015 respectively. This period of decline would have been an opportunity for the ruling party to re-evaluate, rectify its shortcomings, and discard the culture of impunity and lack of internal democracy that caused the loss of 55 seats in 2011.
Unfortunately, these issues were not adequately addressed, leading the party to remain in opposition even to this day.
The chance 2023 Presidential elections presented
Despite the hopes that the PDP would return to power in the recent elections due to the current administration’s perceived failure, this did not happen. However, just a few months before the party’s presidential primary, the PDP experienced a crisis that resulted in two major stakeholders leaving the party. Former Governor of Anambra state, Peter Obi, joined the Labor Party, while former Governor of Kano state, Rabiu Kwanwaso, founded a new political movement called the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Both parties played a significant role in the PDP’s loss at the polls. Moreover, the party faced internal crises immediately after its primary, which were similar to those in the buildup to the 2015 elections. In 2015, the party was divided into the PDP and nPDP factions. This time, the party divided into the PDP and a group called the G5, with former Vice President and presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and Governor Wike of Rivers State leading their respective sides.
Despite facing numerous challenges, including internal crises and stakeholders leaving the party, the PDP managed to secure second place in the elections, just behind the ruling All Progressives Congress. However, the opportunity for the PDP to return to power was lost.
The journey ahead
Over time, the PDP has been losing its strongholds, including the Southeast and most places in the South-South, to the Labor Party in the just concluded presidential election. This raises the question of whether the party is already on its knees. With the March 18th elections coming up tomorrow, it remains uncertain whether the party will retain its number of governors and majority in most state houses of assembly. The journey ahead will definitely be a very difficult one for the party and its leadership.
In conclusion, the PDP, which once believed it would remain in power for up to sixty years, has suffered defeats in different sections of the country in recent years. With redemption at the national level seeming unlikely, although the party has chosen to challenge the result of the just concluded elections, it needs to salvage itself in statewide elections if it promises to stay relevant.